Tuesday, January 27, 2009

No Need to Rush?

For those of us like the four people in our investment club, we view this market like vultures waiting to strike a carcass in the hot desert.

We know there is tremendous value out there in the stock market, and we're excited to start investing with our club's accumulating funds. A number of logistical hurdles still need to be cleared before our club is ready to actually invest in stocks. Some of these hurdles include finalizing the General Partnership, beginning an account with an online brokerage, and perhaps even getting the club accounting software lined up and ready to go.

Some of us are getting restless, viewing this as the best time to buy.

Others of us see no need to rush.

With the recent giant day of layoffs, analysts are getting more and more sour on the 6 and 12 month outlook for the US economy. It can be hard not to when it seems like every other day you know someone who has lost their job. If this is true, there should be great value in stocks in the next 6 months to a year (at the least), and there's no need to rush in quite yet.

On the other hand, the stock market has made many fools out of "bottom timers", people who think they know the exact right time to buy stocks. The end result for these people is that they miss the most important part of the rebound (see mistake number 5).

In the end, I think it's good that our club has a mix of opinions on any subject, and this is no different. The important thing is to ready ourselves should we want to act, and I think we can all agree on that.

2 comments:

Paul Woodcreek said...

Balance within the group is something that can't be underestimated. It is a great thing to have such a balance within our club because it naturally creates and answers many legitimate issues. While one member might be focused on 'safe' stocks, another may focus on 'speculative' stocks, another on 'value' stocks, and another on staying out of the market entirely until he can understand the chaos going on all around us. What normally happens in a case like this is that we hold a no holds barred steel cage match and the winner gets to steer the ship. *Disclaimer* Some or all of that last sentence might be completely false.

Anyhow, the collective sum of the parts creates a strong, well rounded group that will hopefully make intelligent, informed decisions when we start buying our stocks.

At the moment, Aloysius 'The Conservative' Oakridge holds the title belt and wears the captain's hat on our ship, which is probably a good thing at this stage of the game. He keeps members like me in check by making sure that the procedural stuff is all in order before anything gets purchased. It is also nice to get my daily dose of apocolyptic economic news from Sylvester 'The Sky is Falling' Sunday, and my daily beat down and ridicule from Robert 'The Contrarian' Cadillac.

If things were completely up to me, we'd be well on our way to losing money (see my personal portfolio that's currently getting prison sexed by the ever failing economy) and getting an IRS audit due to faulty paperwork. So, I might not be the best at filing paperwork or determining the market bottom, but I think I'm pretty good at spotting bargains and my direct deposit monthly contribution is always on time.

John Schlitz said...

Agree 100% Aly-O. Wisdom through balance will prevail on this team. Sometimes when you're quiet, I'll purposefully ask your opinion. I do that because I value your insights, level-headedness, and want to hear your thoughts on the topic at hand. Your more conservative views might keep me from spending all my money on gold coins, shotguns, and gardening tools.

In NYSE:DOG we trust.